Chapter 2.3 Good For
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- Good Fors' solutions can be turned in anytime before 5:00
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- Good Fors are worth 10 points of extra credit each.
- Answers must be accompanied by valid reasoning. Just like
the tests, the answer alone isn't enough!
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"The Gallup Poll"
An important application of the use of sets is to determine
how widespread a particular belief or opinion is among a group
of people. An efficient method used by researchers to determine
the extent of these beliefs is by sampling a small number people
within the population. This sampling of the public is often done
by polls of which the Gallup Poll, named after George Gallup,
is the most famous.
The doctoral thesis of George Horace Gallup (1901 - 1984) investigated
how the public reacts to advertisements and current events. After
completing his Ph.D., George founded the American Institute of
Public Opinion in 1935. The institute's mission was "to
impartially measure and report public opinion on political and
social issues of the day without regard to the rightness or wisdom
of the views expressed."
Gallup's first triumph was his prediction of the winner of
the 1936 presidential election between Franklin D. Roosevelt
and Alfred Landon. While the majority of political insiders predicted
Landon to win, Gallup correctly predicted the margin by which
Roosevelt would upset Landon and win the election. The Gallup
Polls have correctly predicted every presidential election since,
with the exception of Harry S. Truman's victory over Thomas Dewey.
Gallup had predicted that Truman would only receive 44.5% of
the vote and lose, but he actually won the election with 49.9%.
The technique used by Gallup to poll the public was to take
a stratified random sample of the American population. If correctly
executed, he argued, a sample size of 1,500 people was sufficient
to obtain reliable results.
Here is your problem. After the presidential debates of 2000,
two hundred people were surveyed on who they would still consider
voting for. Of these, 12 people were not considering any of the
three candidates (i.e., Bush, Gore, or Nader). Seventy-eight
said they were still considering Bush, 88 were still considering
Gore, but 128 said they were not considering Nader. No person
who was considering Gore was also considering Bush.
How many people surveyed had decided on exactly one of the
How many people surveyed who were considering Perot were also
considering either Bush or Clinton?
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